“If we get just 1% of this HUGE market…”
I hear this constantly from product teams. Always have.
Right now, I’m working with a client who initially calculated 100 million prospects worldwide for their electronic product.
That’s sorta like saying everyone who owns a smartphone might want your new app.
It’s delusional. (That’s my most 2025-appropriate word for it.)
Here’s what really happens: Your true market consists of real people who:
- Actually have the problem you solve
- Recognize they have this problem
- Are actively seeking a solution
- Have budget to spend on fixing it
- Will trust a new solution enough to try it
Each of these filters typically eliminates 90% or more of your “total market.”
And 90% is the best case, if your product is good and your marketing is convincing — and reaches the right prospects.
Man, that’s a lot of IFs.
Guess what else? Those are the common ones. There are usually more.
But at least now we’re getting real.
So, let’s do the math on my client’s 100 million prospects:
- 10% might have the specific need: 10 million
- 10% of those recognize the need: 1 million
- 10% actively seeking solutions: 100,000
- 10% with budget authority: 10,000
- 10% willing to try a new product: 1,000
Suddenly that “massive market” looks different.
When you build your business case on realistic numbers, you make better decisions about everything from pricing to marketing spend.
You can grow the audience and penetrate more and more of that larger market, but it will take time and commitment.
To start out with, let’s look at that smaller, more realistic pool. They’re probably connected to the larger one.
How do we make sure we reach them, and they LOVE the product?
THAT is our #1 job going to market.
Action for today: Write down your assumed market size. Now apply each filter above. Build your financial projections on that much tinier number — not the fantasy one. Hate me now for bursting your bubble, but you’ll thank me later.
Want help with realistic market validation? Let’s talk about finding your true potential — tap reply.
Laurier
Product Payoff: When Ring started out, they assumed everyone with a front door needed a video doorbell. Right, someday. After market research showed only 12% were ready to buy one, they focused marketing on specific urban neighborhoods with package theft issues. Today they own that targeted market.