Remember when augmented reality (AR) headsets were supposed to be the next smartphones?

Seems like the future isn’t quite here yet.

Apple is reportedly working on a cheaper version of its $3,499 Vision Pro AR headset after slow sales.

Microsoft just threw in the towel on its HoloLens 2.

Early entrant Magic Leap is struggling, facing waves of layoffs.

It all hearkens back to Google Glass, which underestimated the social stigma of wearing creepy specs or weird goggles in public.

(Interestingly, Meta’s Ray-Bans seem so far to be bucking this trend. Maybe because they look like, well, regular sunglasses?)

So why is this “next big thing” stumbling? The answer might lie in a principle I discuss in my book, “I Need That” — the importance of fulfilling a genuine, widespread need.

It makes me think of Segway, which in 2001 was hyped as a revolution in personal transportation.

Visionaries like Steve Jobs and Jeff Bezos predicted Segway would be the fastest company ever to reach a billion dollars in sales and that it’d change transportation forever. Fast forward to 2020, and production ceased. What went wrong?

1. Solving a Non-Existent Problem Most people were perfectly happy with existing modes of transportation.
2. High Price Point At $5,000, it was too expensive for casual users.
3. Regulatory Hurdles Many cities banned its use on sidewalks and roads.
4. Social Awkwardness Users often felt conspicuous and out of place.

Sound familiar? AR headsets are facing similar headwinds:

1. Unclear Value Proposition Beyond niche applications, what problem do they solve for the average person?
2. High Cost Even a “cheaper” Vision Pro will likely be out of reach for most consumers.
3. Technical Limitations Battery life, field of view, and comfort are still significant hurdles.
4. Social Acceptance Like Google Glass, there’s a “creep factor” to overcome.

The lesson here? Amazing technology alone isn’t enough. For a product to succeed, it needs to:

1. Solve a Real Problem It should address a need people actually do have, not one we think they should have.
2. Be Accessible Both in terms of price and ease of use.
3. Fit Seamlessly into Daily Life It shouldn’t require users to dramatically change their behavior or appearance.
4. Provide Clear Value The benefits should outweigh any social or financial costs.

AR technology undoubtedly has huge potential. It’s fascinating and has many practical uses, and in some form WILL be a big thing in the future.

But until it can check these boxes for a broad audience, it might remain a niche product rather than the next must-have consumer gadget.

What do you think? Is AR the future, or just another Segway?

Have you tried any AR products? I’d love to hear your experiences and thoughts in the comments below.